Deciphering the aims of Zangmu power project on the Brahmaputra River

Abstract: Does run-off-the river power project serve the Chinese interests?  The answer is negative. Although, China does require electricity but water is essential.  There are five dams under construction, for time being on middle reaches not to exclusively generate the electricity but to store the water and then channelize the water to northern regions through western route of South-North Water Diversion Project.

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Dr. Manmohan Singh, the Prime Minister of India assured the Rajya Sabha on ongoing construction of dams on the Brahmaputra River that it is a run-of-the-river project, intervening in the reply to a question addressed to the external affairs minister. He also sought to put to rest the controversy and said ‘unnecessary provocation’ on either side can hurt the relations between the two countries. There is no doubt that this shows maturity of Indian strategic thinking to construct ‘sustainable confidence’ and boost up the Indo-China relations. But at the same time, it also suggests the failure of Indian diplomacy and reminds us of consequences of blind trust in Chinese dragon. Chinese assurances on the issue of staple visa have fallen flat. India, therefore must not acknowledge Chinese assurance without having credible and authentic information about the ongoing project.

Zangmu Power Project, compromises a series of five dams namely Dhongzhong, Guoduo, Xiangda, Ruxi and Linchang, which will be constructed on the middle reaches of the main stream and would have installed capacity of 510MW. 

Being upper riparian, China has to take into confidence the lower riparian countries, India and Bangladesh, before going ahead with the proposed project.  But Beijing unilaterally chose to construct a series of dam on middle reaches of the river to produce electricity to develop the ‘occupied’ region of Tibet.  Nonetheless, the project will have devastating effect on Tibetan ecology.

China is in dire need of water for its thirsty northern region and to fulfil its developmental goals. Further, it desperately seeks to solve the siltation problem of the Three Georges Dam and more water from the south i.e. diversion of water through its South-North Water transfer project will definitely ease the crisis.  Earlier it was believed that damming the Brahmaputra River on the Great Bend near Namcha- Barwa will easily divert the water to northern regions of China. However, technical difficulties and ecological ramifications were much higher than anticipated.

Brahmaputra is a trans-boundary river. Damming her could have international dimensions. It could trigger ‘limited confrontation’ with lower riparian countries, India and Bangladesh.  Beijing is not in position to hamper relations with its neighbours as it is imperative for peaceful rise of China.

Survival is primacy concern for any nation-state and interest changes according to circumstances.  China needs water but at minimum cost. China thus slightly modified, for time being, it’s previous plan of South-North Water transfer Project and have put a little less complicated plan to dam the Brahmaputra River by constructing a series of dam instead of diverting the whole water flow towards northern regions by changing the path of river at the Great Bend. It serves twin objectives for Beijing.  Firstly, a small hydro project minimises the concerns of lower riparian countries by claiming that it is meant for electricity generation and it is run-off project. And here Indian strategists failed to understand the hidden objectives of

China and once again affirmed the faith in her giant neighbour.  Secondly, Zangmu Power project will provide water to its northern regions. Does run-off-the river power project serve the Chinese interests?  The answer is negative. Although, China does require electricity but water is essential.  There are five dams under construction, for time being on middle reaches not to exclusively generate the electricity but to store the water and then channelize the water to northern regions through western route of South-North Water Diversion Project.   

India once again has not learnt from the past experiences and has affirmed faith in Chinese assurances. India must explore all the possible ramifications of Zangmu Power project before giving green signal to the project and not endanger her own national interests for the sake of a so called ‘responsible and peaceful neighbour’.

India, with Bangladesh must raise the issue at highest political level with Chinese authority to secure their legitimate rights to water as lower riparian states. Any further delay and misapprehending the gravity of the situations will impede the national interests of both India and Bangladesh and simultaneously suggest the lack of strategic thinking in the Indian establishment.

China, on its part, must invite Indian and Bangladeshi empowered delegation for friendly visit (say inspection) to ongoing construction site of Zangmu power project.  It serves two purposes for Beijing. Firstly, a visit to the site will confirm that China is indeed not undermining the legitimate rights of lower riparian and the project is just a run-off-river project and put to rest any trepidation on the ongoing project in India and Bangladesh. Secondly, it will further enhance the Chinese image at world level and in neighbourhood as a responsible actor.  (published on Watershed: http://www.watershed.com.br/article/228/deciphering-the-aims-of-zangmu-power-project-on-the-brahmaputra-river.aspx)

“Water pact will ease fears over Tibet Dam”

Published: South China Morning Post Hong Kong, December 22, 2010.

DAMMING THE BRAHMAPUTRA: SETBACK TO SOUTH ASIAN STABILITY?

A series of confrontations have intensified the rift between India and China; the issue of visa to certain Indian citizens, assisting Pakistan in construction developments in Pakistan occupied Kashmir etc. The news of damming the Brahmaputra River (Yarlung Tsanspo) further deepens the ‘trust deficit’ between the two countries. SM Krishna, External Affairs Minister of India’s visit to Beijing in the month of April was an attempt to smooth out the relationship and build confidence; however, no significant progress was made.

Any attempt by China therefore, to construct a dam on the Brahmaputra would only further deepen the crisis.  The National Remote Sensing Agency (NRSA) has confirmed that China is constructing a dam on its side of the Brahmaputra River. Earlier, Beijing used to instantly and sharply react to the reports and categorically reject any claims of a dam being constructed on the Brahmaputra.  This time, however Yang Jiechi, the Chinese Foreign Minister, assured SM Krishna that the hydel project at Zangmu will not affect the natural flow in the Brahmaputra River (Business Standard, 22 April 2010). 

A satellite image from Geoeye, a company involved in satellite photography, confirmed that a dam is being constructed on the Brahmaputra River. The proposed hydel project, Zangmu Power Project, compromises a series of five dams namely Dhongzhong, Guoduo, Xiangda, Ruxi and Linchang, which will be constructed on the middle reaches of the main stream and would have installed capacity of 510MW. 

The Brahmaputra is a major river of South Asia and has substantial significance in India and Bangladesh. Brahmaputra water accounts for nearly 30% of the total water resources and about 40% of the total hydropower potential of India. For Bangladesh, the River is even more crucial as it provides for fresh water and the annual gift of the fertile silt for farming. The river therefore, is trans-national in nature and any attempt to obstruct its natural flow would have an international dimension. 

China nevertheless, has its own ambitious plan to divert by damming the river at the Great Bend, the river water to its thirsty North through the western route of South-North Water Transfers Project. Ironically, the plan has less benefits and more harm for Beijing. It is a potential threat to the peace and security of the region. First, the diversion of water will destabilize the biodiversity of the area. Other environmental consequences of the project are much higher than the gains. Moreover, the failure of Three Gorges Dam in preventing floods questions the viability of the plan; 273 people have died in this month's flooding, destroyed 330,000 homes and dislocated tens of thousands of residents.

Second, the northeast regions of India are largely dependant on the Brahmaputra River for the livelihood of the habitants. Large scale diversion of water would adversely hit the economy and affect the surface water table. Shortage of water in the main stream would adversely hit fisheries, navigations, hydropower etc. Preventing natural flow in the river creates silting problems which badly affects the agriculture. Third, the strategic location of very dam, at Namcha Barawa, undermines the security of India. China can use the dam as a military asset, in the event of war, to divert the ‘stored’ water towards India causing great disaster in the region. 

Fourth, diverting the river will create a manmade disaster in Bangladesh. Bangladesh will experience water crisis and agriculture production will substantially drop to create a food crisis which will force millions of people to migrate towards India. India is wary of this, as it is suffering from the same problems.

To protect the interests and sovereignty of India, it becomes essential for India to engage in dialogue with China on the issue. Even China, if it intends to normalize her relations with India and seeks peace and security in the regions, has to give proper considerations to the lower riparian. Unilateral advancement on the part of China leads to political confrontation in the region. A confrontation will further hinder the relationship.    

It would impede, to a great extent, China’s position in South and Southeast Asia and even in world politics, as turmoil in the neighborhood would thwart the economic and political development of China. China, to achieve its great power dream, needs a peaceful neighbourhood and harmonious relations with her neighbours.  Moreover, any conflict in the region will not remain confined to belligerent states, i.e. involvement of the global players cannot be denied. Even growing environmental awareness among Chinese civil society and masses, as seen in the cases of the Three Gorges Dam, recent series of jolts of earthquake, frequent floods etc. pressurize Beijing to rethink the strategic move.    

Countries of the Brahmaputra basin, China, India and Bangladesh must opt for joint river management for sustainable development of the basin and combat the ‘climatic cataclysm’ in the Himalayan region as well as enact legally binding agreements for sharing water resources and development of the economic potentials of the river. 
Published on IPCS, 12 August 2010
http://www.ipcs.org/article/china/damming-the-brahmaputra-setback-to-south-asian-stability-3211.html