Prime Minster Modi in China: What Beijing can Offer

Mr. Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India is visiting China from May 14-16,  2015. After astonishing and spirited visit of Mr. Xi Jinping to India in last year September, this again is a golden opportunity for both leaders to exploit their personal chemistry to coagulate and deepen the mutual trust and postulate an era of strategic partnership.          

Charismatic personality and cordial environment at home, Mr. Modi’s China visit is set to herald an new era of engagement with China, provided Beijing stimulate the process by diplomatic and political pliability. Bhartiaya Janta Party (BJP) hitherto objected to previous government’s policy toward engaging with China. Now at Centre with absolute majority in lower house of the parliament, BJP led by Mr. Modi has determination to change existing foreign policies as evident from his proactive and fast diplomacy. 

Therefore, when Modi visits China, India has certain expectations from China which if fulfilled will go long way in defining China-India relations in the history.

First, China being a permanent member of United Nations Security Council should explicitly and enthusiastically support India’s membership to UNSC. It will not only boost the trust level between the two countries but gives an honourable gesture in Indian masses about Chinese support. The reason is with the re-structuring of UNSC, India is bound to become a permanent member and if China could not come openly in support of India’s claim to UNSC permanent membership sooner, China will lose a golden opportunity to win the hearts of millions of Indians and illustrate, thereby a major failure of Chinese diplomacy. 

Second, China should not use territory claims as deterrence to India’s policy toward China. Let special representative for boundary disputes peacefully functions and suggests some measures to settle the disputes. Frequent territory claims by China only hamper its credibility and intentions to solve the boundary disputes. The claims are only exploited by hawkish strategic thinkers in both countries and ‘news crazy media’-jeopardising any engagement with China. Chinese ancient strategies choice of creating something out of nothing is not appropriate when two countriesare normalising   bilateral relations and progressing toward strategic partnership.

Third, China should take India into confidence and alleviate India’s hesitations toward Xi’s ambitious plan ‘One Belt One Road’. Taken into confidence India can be a good partner in China’s efforts in building Asia and Asian century. As for instance, India is a founding member of Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). China could not afford to let India a major player in the region to opt out from ‘One Belt One Road’ initiative.

Fourth, China has signed a climate change deal with USA in November last year. Although, the agreement has no binding clause but does weaken the existing Sino-India alliance on climate change. India could not afford to sign such agreement with USA and its developmental goal has yet to be achieved. China, though has realised the full industrialisation and expected to fully urbanized by 2020, Chinese economy still has not migrated fully to green economy. Therefore, it’s inevitable for China to align with India at COP21 at Paris to secure the interests of developing nations. China, thus explicitly state that Beijing will not bandwagon with developed nations to compromise the interests of developing nations at Paris when the world leaders sit to discuss the climate change.

Last, China being an upper riparian country in the case of Brahmaputra River, can propose the establishment of a Brahmaputra River Commission with India and Bangladesh as members for sustainable and inclusive development of the river basin. The Brahmaputra River Commission among other things will share data about flow of water and any constructions on the river by any country to demonstrate the transparency. In addition, the BRC will alleviate the anxieties of lower riparian countries about damming the Brahmaputra but also illustrates the responsible image of rising China. Apparently, China has to act as a rising power to reduce the apprehensions of her neighbors and confided with other major powers of the regions if Beijing wants its path to be SILK(y) in accomplishing the status of great power.    

Talking Points: Indian and Chinese Way of Interactions

In China, people discuses everything under the sky except politics. Social gathering is meant to eat, drink and talk anything but politics. The common topic for discussion is food, TV Serials, Novels, Movies, etc. People travel to distant places to eat the specialty of the region. And the standard Chinese language Putong Hua 普通话 ensures the smooth dialogue with local peoples. Being an Indian, feel awkward when no body talk politics in train journey. It can be rightly inferred that Beijing has engaged or provided people other avenues to divert attention from politics.

People in India talk nothing under the sky but politics, whether they are on tea stall or any social gathering. Common peoples have not traveled out of their village except now in the search of jobs. Youth at most travel from their home town to the city of school or University. Domestic travel is negligible and so our understanding of cultures of different regions. The only  thing that links different regions and peoples in India is Politics, common topic for chat.

Thus, people in India have engrossed themselves so much in politics or its politics to engross people in politics that they forgot everything.

In both the cases, peoples have been deprived of , either hard way or soft way, a healthy society.

Make for India: Learn from China

My Chinese friends always praise that  Indian IT is very good but also ask do you have 'we chat 微信', 微博 Wei Bo' , ren ren 人人，QQ”， like this in India. And the reply,  we have " Facebook , Whatsapp, Skype and Twitter". But these are American social sites, surprised Chinese friends ask again.

Well, though IT in India had progressed a lot we have not built indigenous social sites. We Indians trust American, built software program for a fee and rely on them. Even Koreans have 'kakao talk' for calling. Former  Soviet Union territories uses VK.

In China, every university has it's own presence on we chat and other social sites, even the departments have their own. In India many universities still don't have working websites, presence on social sites are still far away.

Payment services like Alipay  支付宝、 微信钱包 We chat Wallet  is easy and convenient. They are in the process of going global and challenging western payment services like PayPal,  etc.

And we still say, Indian IT is superb. Yes, it is but we work for America. Hope 'Make in India' also begins the era for 'Make for India'.

A Brief Content Analysis of the Sunday Edition (14th December 2014) of The Hindu (Delhi Edition) and People’s Daily (人民日报, Chinese Version).

Cover page of both the Hindu and People’s Daily highlights the important national news. Where terrorism related news draw attention in today’s Hindu, the Nanjing Massacre is the focus of People Daily. A sensitive issue in China-Japan relations, Nanjing Massacre and a visit to Yasukuni Shrine by any Japanese politicians, is repeatedly written and telecast by Chinese Print and Television.

If one carefully assesses the distribution of news in the Hindu, will be surprised to see that there is no coverage of North-East region under any heading. People’s Daily consider to be mouth piece of Communist Party of China, have edge over the Hindu in the sense that it does not divide news in region-wise and ignore some regions in the news covering.

It also strikes to mind that the Hindu being a left and poor oriented newspaper in India has no exclusive page on rural life. A very impressive feature of People’s Daily is coverage of social and agricultural transformation and environmental awareness in the villages. The Hindu ironically, has four pages covering City only.

Another striking feature of People’s Daily is weekly page on defence which brings forth the various aspects of the life and work of defence personnel, thereby educating civilians on these issues.

Both the newspapers are left oriented.  However, it is argued that the Hindu has more editorial freedom over news selection than the People’s Daily. Nevertheless,   it can be contended as this freedom is not reflected in its news coverage.

1.      The Hindu has 18 pages with extra 4 pages of Sunday Magazine while People’s Daily has altogether 12 pages.

2.      Besides the cover page, The Hindu dedicates three pages to city news ‘City’ (p.2 and 3), City/NCR (p.4) focusing on Delhi and NCR.  The fifth page covers ‘State’ where again focus is on Delhi exclusively. Subsequent pages bring news region-wise: Northern (p.8), Southern (p.9) National (p. 11) and again mix news under ‘News’ (p.10) heading. International News (p.14) is regular feature.  Whereas People’s Daily covers news under Important News (要闻) (page 2,3,4) and International News (p.7).

3.      The Hindu has regular pages on Business (15) and Sports (p. 16-17).

4.      The Hindu has special ‘Sunday Anchor’ (p.12), Open Page (p. 13), Variety (p. 18) and also have special ‘Sunday Magazine’(4 pages) : covering different perspectives like art and culture, talking points on everyday lives and food. People’s Daily has special features on (Party) Theory (p.5), Defence (p.6), Holiday Life/Travel (p.8), New Village Weekly (p.9) , New Village (p.10-11), and one regular page  ‘Supplement’ (p.12).

5.      The Hindu has Classified Pages (p.7-8) for Matrimonial and other advertisements; People’s Daily prints no such page.

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Deciphering the aims of Zangmu power project on the Brahmaputra River

Abstract: Does run-off-the river power project serve the Chinese interests?  The answer is negative. Although, China does require electricity but water is essential.  There are five dams under construction, for time being on middle reaches not to exclusively generate the electricity but to store the water and then channelize the water to northern regions through western route of South-North Water Diversion Project.

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Dr. Manmohan Singh, the Prime Minister of India assured the Rajya Sabha on ongoing construction of dams on the Brahmaputra River that it is a run-of-the-river project, intervening in the reply to a question addressed to the external affairs minister. He also sought to put to rest the controversy and said ‘unnecessary provocation’ on either side can hurt the relations between the two countries. There is no doubt that this shows maturity of Indian strategic thinking to construct ‘sustainable confidence’ and boost up the Indo-China relations. But at the same time, it also suggests the failure of Indian diplomacy and reminds us of consequences of blind trust in Chinese dragon. Chinese assurances on the issue of staple visa have fallen flat. India, therefore must not acknowledge Chinese assurance without having credible and authentic information about the ongoing project.

Zangmu Power Project, compromises a series of five dams namely Dhongzhong, Guoduo, Xiangda, Ruxi and Linchang, which will be constructed on the middle reaches of the main stream and would have installed capacity of 510MW. 

Being upper riparian, China has to take into confidence the lower riparian countries, India and Bangladesh, before going ahead with the proposed project.  But Beijing unilaterally chose to construct a series of dam on middle reaches of the river to produce electricity to develop the ‘occupied’ region of Tibet.  Nonetheless, the project will have devastating effect on Tibetan ecology.

China is in dire need of water for its thirsty northern region and to fulfil its developmental goals. Further, it desperately seeks to solve the siltation problem of the Three Georges Dam and more water from the south i.e. diversion of water through its South-North Water transfer project will definitely ease the crisis.  Earlier it was believed that damming the Brahmaputra River on the Great Bend near Namcha- Barwa will easily divert the water to northern regions of China. However, technical difficulties and ecological ramifications were much higher than anticipated.

Brahmaputra is a trans-boundary river. Damming her could have international dimensions. It could trigger ‘limited confrontation’ with lower riparian countries, India and Bangladesh.  Beijing is not in position to hamper relations with its neighbours as it is imperative for peaceful rise of China.

Survival is primacy concern for any nation-state and interest changes according to circumstances.  China needs water but at minimum cost. China thus slightly modified, for time being, it’s previous plan of South-North Water transfer Project and have put a little less complicated plan to dam the Brahmaputra River by constructing a series of dam instead of diverting the whole water flow towards northern regions by changing the path of river at the Great Bend. It serves twin objectives for Beijing.  Firstly, a small hydro project minimises the concerns of lower riparian countries by claiming that it is meant for electricity generation and it is run-off project. And here Indian strategists failed to understand the hidden objectives of

China and once again affirmed the faith in her giant neighbour.  Secondly, Zangmu Power project will provide water to its northern regions. Does run-off-the river power project serve the Chinese interests?  The answer is negative. Although, China does require electricity but water is essential.  There are five dams under construction, for time being on middle reaches not to exclusively generate the electricity but to store the water and then channelize the water to northern regions through western route of South-North Water Diversion Project.   

India once again has not learnt from the past experiences and has affirmed faith in Chinese assurances. India must explore all the possible ramifications of Zangmu Power project before giving green signal to the project and not endanger her own national interests for the sake of a so called ‘responsible and peaceful neighbour’.

India, with Bangladesh must raise the issue at highest political level with Chinese authority to secure their legitimate rights to water as lower riparian states. Any further delay and misapprehending the gravity of the situations will impede the national interests of both India and Bangladesh and simultaneously suggest the lack of strategic thinking in the Indian establishment.

China, on its part, must invite Indian and Bangladeshi empowered delegation for friendly visit (say inspection) to ongoing construction site of Zangmu power project.  It serves two purposes for Beijing. Firstly, a visit to the site will confirm that China is indeed not undermining the legitimate rights of lower riparian and the project is just a run-off-river project and put to rest any trepidation on the ongoing project in India and Bangladesh. Secondly, it will further enhance the Chinese image at world level and in neighbourhood as a responsible actor.  (published on Watershed: http://www.watershed.com.br/article/228/deciphering-the-aims-of-zangmu-power-project-on-the-brahmaputra-river.aspx)

“Water pact will ease fears over Tibet Dam”

Published: South China Morning Post Hong Kong, December 22, 2010.

DAMMING THE BRAHMAPUTRA: SETBACK TO SOUTH ASIAN STABILITY?

A series of confrontations have intensified the rift between India and China; the issue of visa to certain Indian citizens, assisting Pakistan in construction developments in Pakistan occupied Kashmir etc. The news of damming the Brahmaputra River (Yarlung Tsanspo) further deepens the ‘trust deficit’ between the two countries. SM Krishna, External Affairs Minister of India’s visit to Beijing in the month of April was an attempt to smooth out the relationship and build confidence; however, no significant progress was made.

Any attempt by China therefore, to construct a dam on the Brahmaputra would only further deepen the crisis.  The National Remote Sensing Agency (NRSA) has confirmed that China is constructing a dam on its side of the Brahmaputra River. Earlier, Beijing used to instantly and sharply react to the reports and categorically reject any claims of a dam being constructed on the Brahmaputra.  This time, however Yang Jiechi, the Chinese Foreign Minister, assured SM Krishna that the hydel project at Zangmu will not affect the natural flow in the Brahmaputra River (Business Standard, 22 April 2010). 

A satellite image from Geoeye, a company involved in satellite photography, confirmed that a dam is being constructed on the Brahmaputra River. The proposed hydel project, Zangmu Power Project, compromises a series of five dams namely Dhongzhong, Guoduo, Xiangda, Ruxi and Linchang, which will be constructed on the middle reaches of the main stream and would have installed capacity of 510MW. 

The Brahmaputra is a major river of South Asia and has substantial significance in India and Bangladesh. Brahmaputra water accounts for nearly 30% of the total water resources and about 40% of the total hydropower potential of India. For Bangladesh, the River is even more crucial as it provides for fresh water and the annual gift of the fertile silt for farming. The river therefore, is trans-national in nature and any attempt to obstruct its natural flow would have an international dimension. 

China nevertheless, has its own ambitious plan to divert by damming the river at the Great Bend, the river water to its thirsty North through the western route of South-North Water Transfers Project. Ironically, the plan has less benefits and more harm for Beijing. It is a potential threat to the peace and security of the region. First, the diversion of water will destabilize the biodiversity of the area. Other environmental consequences of the project are much higher than the gains. Moreover, the failure of Three Gorges Dam in preventing floods questions the viability of the plan; 273 people have died in this month's flooding, destroyed 330,000 homes and dislocated tens of thousands of residents.

Second, the northeast regions of India are largely dependant on the Brahmaputra River for the livelihood of the habitants. Large scale diversion of water would adversely hit the economy and affect the surface water table. Shortage of water in the main stream would adversely hit fisheries, navigations, hydropower etc. Preventing natural flow in the river creates silting problems which badly affects the agriculture. Third, the strategic location of very dam, at Namcha Barawa, undermines the security of India. China can use the dam as a military asset, in the event of war, to divert the ‘stored’ water towards India causing great disaster in the region. 

Fourth, diverting the river will create a manmade disaster in Bangladesh. Bangladesh will experience water crisis and agriculture production will substantially drop to create a food crisis which will force millions of people to migrate towards India. India is wary of this, as it is suffering from the same problems.

To protect the interests and sovereignty of India, it becomes essential for India to engage in dialogue with China on the issue. Even China, if it intends to normalize her relations with India and seeks peace and security in the regions, has to give proper considerations to the lower riparian. Unilateral advancement on the part of China leads to political confrontation in the region. A confrontation will further hinder the relationship.    

It would impede, to a great extent, China’s position in South and Southeast Asia and even in world politics, as turmoil in the neighborhood would thwart the economic and political development of China. China, to achieve its great power dream, needs a peaceful neighbourhood and harmonious relations with her neighbours.  Moreover, any conflict in the region will not remain confined to belligerent states, i.e. involvement of the global players cannot be denied. Even growing environmental awareness among Chinese civil society and masses, as seen in the cases of the Three Gorges Dam, recent series of jolts of earthquake, frequent floods etc. pressurize Beijing to rethink the strategic move.    

Countries of the Brahmaputra basin, China, India and Bangladesh must opt for joint river management for sustainable development of the basin and combat the ‘climatic cataclysm’ in the Himalayan region as well as enact legally binding agreements for sharing water resources and development of the economic potentials of the river. 
Published on IPCS, 12 August 2010
http://www.ipcs.org/article/china/damming-the-brahmaputra-setback-to-south-asian-stability-3211.html